It looks like 2021 will be a tough year for all walks of life. The primary market financing is difficult, the secondary market share price is depressed, the capital has lost its former high spirited.
In 2021, large enterprises will downsize, increase source and reduce expenditure, while small companies will guard the city cautiously. Survival is the biggest belief. All walks of life are revising and upgrading, which also means that enterprises begin to go from virtual to reality, return to the main business and focus on user needs.
What new opportunities are there in the middle of winter? Which industries will explode in 2022? Deep combustion communicated with a number of senior investors and industry researchers, trying to find answers and give some direction and confidence to the entrepreneurs.
1. New consumption counterattack line, consumer goods health can be done
After years of booming Internet business, the consumer industry is fighting back offline.
One obvious phenomenon is that there are more and more "new species" in shopping malls. Coffee brands such as Manner, baking brands such as Momo Dim Sum And Hutou, and electronic goods brands such as Perfect Diary and Ubras have all opened their stores. Fashion stores and beauty stores are expanding rapidly. Funding for these types of projects is also growing.
Na Mingyuan, co-founder of Dolphin Club, analyzed that this is because: first, online traffic is too expensive, the volume between brands is serious, offline traffic is very good and there is preferential space for offline rent after the epidemic; Second, the current opportunity to do business platform is not big, there is still room for new consumer brands, and if the brand does not want to tie with the platform, it is necessary to open the store, some both brand and cable store projects, attracted a lot of capital to invest; Third, most people should consume and consume, the offline demand has been in.
Originally, if one shop does well online, it can serve the whole country with higher efficiency. However, due to fierce online competition, it is not as easy as offline business within 3 kilometers. More than ever, new opportunities are emerging offline again.
Na Mingyuan has invested in a number of offline projects this year. In his view, at this time, financing is difficult for enterprises, valuations are relatively low, and institutions willing to pay will have the opportunity to get cheap good projects. He predicted that in 2022, the chain rate of offline business will increase.
In terms of investment logic, "we pay more attention to good models and data. For example, the average return of offline stores is 18 months, and some of our investments are three or four months. We are more optimistic about veteran entrepreneurs with industry background, projects with supply chain resources and offline resources."
Chen Momo, a senior investor in the consumer industry, found that the rise of offline content consumption and experiential consumption items is also obvious. "It may be that the epidemic in the past two years has made many people stay at home, which has aroused their desire for scene or experiential consumption. From escape rooms and werewolf kills in previous years to script Kills this year, it's an iteration of the content organization supply chain and an upgrade of the experience."
She sees a continuing opportunity for future scenario-type projects that focus on the actual needs of users, but in a different form. This kind of project is equivalent to the offline real version of the game. In essence, it is the interactive real entertainment of IP and has strong content consumption attribute like the game.
Another trend in the consumer sector is the awakening of health-conscious consumption.
Be optimistic about the trend of healthy consumption. "Today, most people thought of prevention before they will appear in the body, also produced a lot of model solution", she, for example, fire over the past two years several major categories are related to health, the effect of healthy skin protect skin to taste, health without size underwear, meal, plant milk, from forest is because caught drink health bonuses.
"Next I think every consumer category, there is room for health." However, she is not optimistic about some enterprises without core product capabilities. For example, some projects of meal replacement milkshakes in the industry only integrate some supply chain schemes and have no product research and development capabilities. At this time, if there is no special channel ability, can only be rolled inside each other.
In 2021, the consumer industry will be hot at the beginning of the year and then cold. The market will be enthusiastic at the beginning of the year, and the attitude of the capital market towards new consumption will change 180 degrees in the second half of the year. Consumption industry flow type play in this stage of the opportunity has not, with the consumption track into the red sea, the promotion of input-output is not proportional to the flow driven new brand into the dark moment.
As for the performance of the new consumer industry in 2022, Wu believes that it will be the opposite of this year, with the first cold and then hot. In his view, consumption is always a "sinking boat side of a thousand sails, before the sick tree ten thousand wood spring", no matter how difficult the time, there are always old brands die, new brands come out.
In the future consumer industry, enterprises should bid farewell to flow-type gameplay, practice internal skills more, grasp core users and core business, slow is fast.
2. Core technologies have been exploded, and energy storage has become a new favorite of new energy
In 2021, hard technology has completely become the consensus of all investors, and now almost no one in the investment community is not talking about hard technology.
In 2021, hard technology has completely become the consensus of all investors, and now almost no one in the investment community is not talking about hard technology.
In 2021, the overall investment environment was cold, "about 60 hard technology projects were invested in the past year. Now the investment circle is also inside the volume, many institutions used to invest in hard science and technology projects less, began to make up for the lessons, the project valuation was inflated, and some institutions do not even do the due diligence on the investment. It used to be projects chasing investors, now investors are chasing projects."
The core of hard technology is that it is the real underlying driving force of the entire economic development. Mi Lei pointed out that in the past ten years, the enterprise is more on the basis of the previous generation of technology dividend application level exploration, at present, the attempt has basically reached the top, so today's mobile phone hardware, APP are difficult to have a big innovation.
"This wave of hard technology explosion is about getting the new technology infrastructure in place so that future applications can develop. This is the confluence cycle of 60 years, there must be a new round of scientific and technological revolution rise, application can be thoroughly, this is the big logic."
Semiconductors are the hottest of the hard technologies, thanks to changing global trade relations, the rise of new energy vehicles, the full certainty of a dual carbon policy, and increasingly mature technologies. Over the past three years, ningde Times and Longji have seen their share prices soar by more than 700%.
In semiconductor, the current Moore's Law (the core content is: the number of transistors that can be accommodated on an integrated circuit will double every 18 months or so) has entered the bottleneck. The opportunity for enterprises lies in core materials and equipment, core software, and breakthroughs in high-end technology such as optical chips.
Meanwhile, in 2021, the new energy industry will be exploded, and carbon neutrality has become a new keyword. Further down the line, the hottest area of carbon neutrality is energy storage.
Event increased energy storage aspects of financing in 2021, March 26, grade sodium group announced that completed the hundreds of millions of yuan in A round of funding, in November, store it announced A complete 180 million yuan in the Pre - A round of funding, by ZhaoYin kechuang, magnitude of the association of international investment, in December, the singularity energy announced A complete A round of funding from IDG capital, the source of capital.
Energy storage is taking off quickly because it can harness the power generated by wind and solar on a massive scale. For years, energy storage projects had been a bottleneck from a low base, but now wind and solar plants are required to deploy energy storage.
The most important thing for energy storage entrepreneurs is to seize the opportunity of the development of the industry, rapidly expand capacity, really seize and land this opportunity, and turn the demand into the industrial scale and industrial advantage of the enterprise. In addition, this is a trillion-level market, and there are still opportunities for new enterprises to enter the market. What enterprises need to solve are energy storage efficiency, product technology maturity, cost and safety issues.
However, entrepreneurs still need to be more calm, can not be carried away by the hot market, investors give money is not what, customers give money is the real success of the enterprise." Mi Lei predicted that there are still 5-10 years to complete this round of infrastructure construction, which leaves a lot of opportunities for hard technology enterprises. In the future, metasexes, 5G, 6G, data centers, cloud computing, optical waveguide AR glasses, etc., are all technological development opportunities.
In 2022 and beyond, the main story of the innovation economy must be hard technology, an industry that anchors the industry's upgrading chariot and has a great future.
3. E-commerce companies turn to short video platform and seize the opportunity to go overseas
Over the past year, the e-commerce industry has lost its usual buzz. Against the background of anti-monopoly, tax recovery and other regulatory background, there was no war on June 18, no battle report on November 11, and Double 12 was quiet, and several major e-commerce festivals were very low-key. Platform side and brand side, what are the opportunities?
Although alibaba, JINGdong, Pinduoduo and other established e-commerce companies are still growing, it is a fact that the growth rate has declined. Among them, short video platforms represented by Douyin and Kuaishou have made efforts to promote e-commerce, taking a share of the stock market. Bilibili also recently began testing a "yellow car" feature that allows users to order goods while watching a live stream. Some say the Internet ends with selling goods.
The further popularization of live streaming has played a key role in boosting the popularity of live streaming. Take Douyin for example, Luo Yonghao's team, star artists such as Jia Nailiang and Hua Shao, anchors who have grown up on douyin platform, and many brands that have joined douyin have made douyin e-commerce rise quickly.
The momentum of Douyin should continue, and its share in the e-commerce field will increase in the future, and its e-commerce business scale is likely to surpass jingdong and Pinduoduo
But the problem is that as a content platform, rather than an e-commerce platform, Douyin needs to balance video content with merchandise, so its scale is limited. In addition, Douyin's e-commerce closed loop is not good enough, and it also faces key problems such as user retention, repurchase and after-sales.
For the brand side, in douyin, Kuaishou and other video platforms to do e-commerce, we must add the play of private domain traffic, can not establish private domain traffic, brand development is difficult to last.
Whether Tik Tok (Douyin,In China) can recreate Ali is, of course, hard.
Several established e-commerce companies have complete infrastructure and incomparable advantages over other platforms. However, Douyin is a good channel for discovery interest consumption, because it is a recommendation logic, which is more suitable for the consumption of interest, discovery, non-demand, low unit price and instant decision. Station B is suitable for specific groups or subdivided content related categories, such as "three pits" (Han clothing, Lolita clothing, JK uniforms) and other aspects of the e-commerce. These niche supply chains, traditional e-commerce services are not perfect, pre-sale, customization and other games have not been fully used.
All vertical categories that are not well served by traditional e-commerce have opportunities for new platforms to enter the office to do e-commerce if the single scale is large enough.
Another big opportunity for the e-commerce industry is going overseas. "Because of the epidemic, many overseas supply chains have problems, and they are more dependent on China's supply chain, as countries in Europe and the United States, Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea have such opportunities," Wu noted.
In 2022, if we make overseas business, we should seize the opportunity of gap flow, set up a team with overseas gene, and strive to achieve full-channel and full-network operation, intensive cultivation, and really study more efficient overseas business
By strategically seizing the opportunities of new platforms and new ways of playing, e-tailers may have a new way to go in 2022.
4. The meta-universe integrates online and offline, with large enterprises playing the stage and startups playing the role
Just when you thought the metasverse was a concept and hype, some of the world's leading tech giants are making plans and starting to bear fruit.
In 2021, the metasemes are the only new vents to emerge out of nowhere.
A lot of people think that the meta-universe is the next generation of mobile Internet, Web3.0. It will completely change the existing carrier and infrastructure, and create a new virtual reality world.
Some people come out to refute that the meta-universe is only at the stage of imagination. In addition to VR/AR and game applications, it is difficult to imagine more applications that can be really implemented. It is difficult for the meta-universe to change the industry immediately.
Now the head can solve the problem of vision and hearing, did not solve the problem of other senses, such as smell, touch, sense of balance, which is also the reason why many people feel dizzy after experiencing. I'm not optimistic about the progress of the Meta-universe because the infrastructure is not ready yet, the equipment, the content, the setting.
However, the consensus of many practitioners is that the metasomes, although not yet fully arrived, is a deterministic, directional and tendency existence.
The metasverse is a big wave, and it has a long cycle. The metasverse is like the Internet in 1999. The Internet has gone through several waves of development, and so has the metasverse, which is still very early. In the future, the meta-universe will definitely bring online and offline through.
The possible development path of the universe is that "Dachang sets the stage and entrepreneurs play the role". After dachang sets up the infrastructure, entrepreneurs will develop more applications and content, and experience offline scenes, e-commerce and car-mounted scenes are all possible directions. For example, car is a good scene of Meta. Augmented reality can be used to help drivers see more information in their field of vision, which is equivalent to a large screen that can accommodate everything in their field of vision.
In addition to online and offline, the combination of virtual and real is also possible in the meta-universe. "For example, games will be a big part of content consumption or spiritual consumption. Physical consumption will also be an important part."
The metasverse is fertile ground for future entrepreneurs to compete on.
5. New energy vehicles continue to leap forward, battery innovation, autonomous driving save new opportunities
In 2021, the new forces of car making will make a big splash in the car industry.
Let's start with Tesla. Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the third quarter, up 73 per cent from a year earlier, as carmakers around the world struggled with supply constraints on chips, batteries and components. In the first three quarters of 2021, Tesla has delivered 624,000 vehicles.
Let's take a look at the first echelon of enterprises represented by "Wei Xiaoli", the new power of Car manufacturing in China.
At present, NiO, Ideal, Xiaopeng three companies have been listed, and sales have a qualitative leap. Several companies posted record sales in the first 11 months of 2021. As shown in the figure below, at the beginning of the year, the sales level of the three companies was still around 6000 units. In September, the sales volume of NiO and Xiaopeng exceeded 10,000 units for the first time, and in November, all of them exceeded 10,000 units.
The second tier of new car builders is no less impressive.
Since the second half of this year, Weima, Nezha, Zero Run have been reported to be preparing for IPO. At present, Zero Run has completed 4.5 billion yuan of pre-IPO round financing, Nezha has obtained 4 billion yuan of D round financing, and Weimar is expected to get more than 500 million DOLLARS of D+ round financing. These intensive fundraising activities may be in preparation for the IPO. In terms of sales, Ne Zha also sold 10,013 units in November.
In addition to the old players, new entrants are emerging. According to public reports, In March 2021, Xiaomi announced to build cars, and on September 1, Xiaomi Automobile Was officially established. As of December, it has established a research and development team of more than 500 people, and xiaomi Automobile plans to launch its first model in the first half of 2024.
Of course, behind the hot industry, the problems in the field of new vehicles are also worth noting, such as the high cost of new energy vehicles, dependence on subsidies, battery life, safety, charging facilities are to be improved. In general, "new energy vehicles are still in the primary stage of development, the industry concentration is not high, overcapacity is serious, the company's high proportion of car purchases are urgent to improve
The current new energy vehicle industry is just like the mobile phone industry ten years ago. At that time, Apple and a number of domestic mobile phones blossomed, and now Tesla and Wei Xiaoli are blooming everywhere.
Ningde times is expected to increase its battery output to 2.5 times that of 2021 by 2022, indicating its confidence in its market share and the overall market growth
In 2022, new energy vehicles will continue to expand with an unstoppable momentum.
6. The outbreak of vocational education, enterprise services on the fast track
In 2021, the education and training industry experienced a slump from the wind to the bottom. When subject training embarked on the road of universal benefit and public welfare, most of the education industry has given up the idea of capitalization. At the same time, however, vocational education is on the fast track as officials set the tone.
Listed companies, industry leaders and enterprises of all kinds are encouraged to offer vocational education in accordance with the law, the official document said, adding that by 2025, vocational undergraduate education should account for no less than 10 percent of higher vocational education enrollment.
Because vocational education solves employment problems and people's livelihood problems, rather than increasing internal problems and creating anxiety, Yao Yufei, founder of Whale Capital, believes that in the future, training programs for middle and high-end talents in technology and application are promising.
First, the employment situation is grim. In 2022, the number of college students waiting for employment will reach 10 million, a record high, and employment will become a hot topic. However, some students trained by higher education are out of touch with the needs of society, and the market is in urgent need of high-quality vocational education. Second, professional talents are in great demand. Over the past years, the rapid development of science and technology Internet, emerging new outlets such as new energy vehicles, hard technology, meta-universe, integrated circuits, new materials and other fields continue to need talents.
At present, the country mainly encourages listed companies and head companies to do, so listed companies and head companies can first enjoy the dividend, but there are also opportunities for start-up companies.
Entrepreneurs should seize the opportunity of new vocational training, now the market is constantly in the birth of new professions, such as new media, live delivery and other professions that are not covered in the university.
At present, entrepreneurs in the field of vocational education face difficulties: "Long approval and approval cycles, shortage of teachers, not enough jobs, and, most importantly, the effectiveness of training remains to be seen. In the future, can highlight the encirclement of the enterprise, must be true word of mouth, employment situation outstanding enterprises.
The next step for entrepreneurs is to study the policy and direction, and find training content that is closer to the development of technology and the needs of enterprises. Grasping the emerging fields is one way, but it is more important to assess the situation, not just talk about hot topics.
Another big opportunity for 2022 lies in enterprise services.
Enterprise services, that is, to improve efficiency with digitization, with big data to solve the cost and scale of enterprises.
In fact, no matter from operation management, marketing to customer management and other services, enterprises need Internet. In recent years, enterprise services have been applied in more and more vertical fields. Every industry needs solutions to help enterprises improve management, operation and sales efficiency. In addition, in recent years, some partial traditional enterprises also began to pay attention to their own Internet.
Enterprise service is more like an unknown potential stock. In 2022, enterprise service projects that help enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency will accumulate.
