Outlook of China's export situation in 2022: the inflection point of high share has not yet arrived, but the boom of high growth will pass

1. China's export resilience in 2021 exceeds market expectations

At the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, the mainstream market forecast for China's export situation is that the export growth in 2021 will be stable, basically within 10% 1. Data from the General Administration of Customs show that China's export value (in DOLLAR terms, the same below) has maintained double-digit growth since October 2020 and increased by 29.9% for the whole of 2021, with nine months of actual export growth higher than the average market forecast. According to WTO data, since the second quarter of 2020, the global market share of exports has increased significantly, reaching 15.0% in the first three quarters of 2021, 0.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and significantly higher than the average 13.0% in the same period from 2015 to 2019.

Reasons for rapid export growth: the recovery of external demand drives the increase of quantity growth, and supply and demand factors jointly push up the contribution of price

Global demand has picked up, and export volumes have risen markedly. In 2021, the global economy recovered rapidly thanks to rising vaccination rates and support from loose fiscal and monetary policies. In January 2022, the World Bank released the latest Global Economic Outlook, which predicted that the global GDP would grow by 5.5% in 2021, with 5.0% growth in developed economies and 6.3% growth in emerging markets and developing economies. In October 2021, the WTO predicted that global trade volume would grow by 10.8% in 2021, up 2.8 percentage points from its march forecast.

Driven by supply and demand factors, export prices rose significantly. Due to the impact of COVID-19 and bad weather, the global supply chain has been disrupted, and the combined demand has recovered rapidly, significantly widening the gap between supply and demand. The global MANUFACTURING PMI output index has been consistently below the new orders index since March 2021, with the gap reaching 2.2 percentage points in October, the largest gap in 12 years. During the same period, the input price index and output price index both rose significantly, rising to 74.4% and 63.7% respectively in October, the highest since 2009.

From March to September 2021, global commodity export prices maintained double-digit year-on-year growth, rising to 15.8% in September, while export volume growth was only 3.0%. From July to September of 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of China's commodity export price expands. The growth rate of Export price in September and December is 10.6% and 9.3% respectively, which is higher than the growth rate of export quantity in that month of 8.4% and 7.3% respectively, and is the main contribution to the growth of export value. However, the growth rate of export value in other months is still dominated by the contribution of quantity.

Reasons for the increase in export share: epidemic prevention and control advantages, intensified supply-demand mismatch, export boom diffusion, supply chain layout optimization

Advantages of domestic epidemic prevention and control to ensure the smooth development of production activities. In the early stages of the Spread of The Delta virus in April 2021, countries intensified their epidemic prevention and control policies. Since then, however, as the global vaccine coverage rate has increased and countries have relatively sufficient medical resources to deal with confirmed cases, more and more countries have started to co-exist with the virus, and the overall epidemic prevention and control efforts have slowed down. However, as countries gradually relax social distancing measures, the risk of transmission of the virus is increasing as human contact increases.

For example, starting in mid-2021, Singapore switched from pursuing a zero-out policy to learning to live with the virus. Although the country had a high rate of full vaccination, it saw a resurgence of the disease after opening up, with more than 5,000 new confirmed cases in a single day at the end of October. On the contrary, While accelerating the vaccination campaign, China has continued to implement strict epidemic prevention policies. Despite the slight recurrence of the epidemic, there have been few new confirmed cases, thus avoiding the spread of the epidemic and ensuring the smooth operation of foreign trade enterprises. From April 2020 to the end of 2021, the correlation coefficient between monthly newly confirmed cases in the world (excluding China) and China's export value was as high as 0.75, indicating that the difference between domestic and foreign epidemic prevention and control had a great impact on China's export.

Since the outbreak, the pattern of overseas consumption and Chinese production has been further strengthened

After the epidemic, developed countries represented by the United States adopted extremely loose fiscal and monetary policies, and consumer demand recovered faster than production demand. In 2021, retail sales rose 17.8% from a year earlier, while industrial production grew just 5.5%. On the contrary, thanks to the resilience of the domestic supply chain, China's production recovered faster than consumption.

In the context of slow recovery of domestic demand and strong external demand, more domestic enterprises turn to export. In 2021, China will have 567,000 enterprises with solid import and export performance, an increase of 36,000. In particular, private enterprises, due to their strong adaptability and rapid adjustment, turn more to foreign trade: in 2021, private enterprises accounted for 56.0% of exports, up 2.0 percentage points from 2020. Moreover, with the support of the policy of stabilizing foreign trade, cross-border e-commerce, market procurement, overseas warehousing and other new forms and models of business have become an important force driving foreign trade growth. According to customs data, cross-border e-commerce exports grew by 24.5 percent in 2021. The export volume of market procurement increased by 32.1%, driving the export growth by 1.3 percentage points 2.

However, increased export competition has led to a deterioration in China's terms of trade, with the index consistently below 100 from February to December 2021. On the one hand, this means that domestic foreign trade enterprises in the international market bargaining space is compressed; On the other hand, it also shows that Chinese products occupy a larger share of the export market by virtue of their price advantage.

Industrial production advantage drives commodity export boom to spread further

According to WTO data, the global market share of China's manufactured exports increased by 1.7 percentage points in 2020 from 2019, slightly exceeding the 1.6 percentage point increase in the share of total exports. Among them, the share of textile exports increased by 7.8 percentage points from 2019. During the same period, the value of China's exports increased by us $90.5 billion from the previous year, with mechanical and electrical equipment, audio and video equipment, textile products, miscellaneous products (including furniture and toys, etc.) and plastic products (HS category 1) contributing the most, at 738%, 224%, 217% and 139%, respectively, according to the General Administration of Customs. It shows that epidemic prevention materials and household economy-related products are the main driving items of export growth in 2020.

However, in 2021, with the continuous increase of global vaccine coverage rate and gradual relaxation of epidemic prevention and control policies, the demand for epidemic prevention materials and household economy-related products will weaken, contributing less to the increase of China's export value (compared with 2019). However, thanks to the strong resilience of the domestic supply chain, Thirteen categories (HS category) including base metals contributed significantly, indicating that the export boom is spreading further.

Before the pandemic, China had taken the initiative to adjust the layout of the global supply chain

After its accession to the WTO, China has rapidly integrated into the global economy and trading system, and its share of imports and exports in the global market has increased. In 2019, the share of China's import and export was 10.8 percent and 13.3 percent, up 4.7 and 6.0 percentage points respectively from 2005. Despite the outbreak of Sino-US trade frictions in 2018, Thanks to China's initiative to adjust the layout of its supply chain, part of its exports to the US were shifted to ASEAN countries, and part of the US imports from China were also shifted to ASEAN countries, so China's export share did not decrease. As ASEAN countries mainly focus on processing trade, the proportion of intermediate goods in China's export in 2018 and 2019 increased by 1.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared with the previous year. This proves once again the result of adjusting the layout of supply chain and maintaining the resilience of export growth.

2. Two basic judgments on China's export situation in 2022

Export market share is likely to rise steadily

With unequal distribution of vaccines, the impact of the epidemic in developed countries faded more quickly

In December 2021, WHO officials said that the COVID-19 pandemic is "very likely" to end in 2022 if the novel coronavirus transmission continues to be contained and deaths continue to be reduced, provided that existing vaccination measures are widely available. However, the emergence of a new mutant strain of omicron has once again added to the uncertainty of the epidemic. In January 2022, the World Bank and the INTERNATIONAL Monetary Fund lowered their forecasts for global economic growth in 2022 by 0.2 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively, to 4.1% and 4.4%, respectively, due to the new threat posed by the mutant strain of COVID-19.

Given the low severity and fatality rates associated with omicron, we are inclined to see a gradual improvement in the global outbreak in 2022, assuming no new mutant strains emerge. On January 24, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus also said that if countries fully use all strategies and tools, the worst phase of the epidemic can be ended this year and COVID-19 will no longer be a global public health emergency. However, the global distribution of vaccines remains uneven. More than 75% of people in developed economies receive at least one dose of vaccine, 55% in emerging economies and developing countries, and only 8% in low-income countries. The World Bank predicts that if current vaccination rates continue, only a third of people in low-income countries will be vaccinated by the end of 2023. This means that developed countries are recovering faster due to high vaccination rates and reduced impact of the pandemic, while emerging economies and low-income countries are affected for longer.

Of course, if the virus mutates again or breaks through the immune barrier, the global economy will be hit again, and given the need to enhance vaccine protection through booster shots, the actual ideal vaccination rate should be higher than the current level of 70-80%, leaving China to enjoy the export dividend for much longer.

The consumption-oriented economic structure of developed countries makes China's production advantages continue to highlight

According to the real GDP composition data disclosed by the United Nations Statistics Division, in 2019, the manufacturing output of East and Southeast Asian countries accounted for nearly half of the global total, much higher than the 24.3% share of consumer spending, indicating that the global production capacity is mainly concentrated in these countries. In terms of vaccine coverage rate, as of January 18, 2022, the vaccine coverage rate in developed countries in East Asia, Southern Europe, Northern Europe, Western Europe and North America has exceeded 70%. However, in these countries, the consumption expenditure of other countries except East Asia accounts for 50.9% in total, far exceeding the manufacturing output which accounts for 35.5%. As a result, even if these countries emerge from the pandemic faster than others, their economies are structured to be dominated by a recovery in consumption, particularly in services. China, on the other hand, will continue to play its role as a global manufacturing center and maintain the resilience of its exports by taking advantage of the epidemic prevention and control advantages.

The stickiness of foreign trade orders brought by high export growth has delayed the decline of China's export share

Thanks to the perfect domestic industrial production system, China's export products cover a wide range of categories and share distribution is relatively even. As mentioned above, China's export boom will further spread in 2021. This means that the international market that was not open to foreign trade enterprises before the epidemic has significantly expanded, and the products exported by enterprises are more familiar with and accepted by overseas consumers. Although the risk of backflow of foreign trade orders cannot be ruled out after the global epidemic improves and industrial production in other countries gradually returns to normal, for some commodities (especially those with strong homogeneity), overseas importers may continue to choose To import from China in the short term once their buying habits form.

The export boom may have ended

The global economic recovery continues, but has weakened further

After a strong rebound in 2021, the global economy is likely to see slower growth momentum in 2022. In January 2022, the World Bank predicted that global economic growth would slow down from 5.5% in 2021 to 4.1% in 2022. Slowing global economic recovery will lead to slower growth in the volume of trade in goods. In October 2021, the WTO forecast that growth in the volume of global trade in goods would slow to 4.7% from 10.8% in 2021, close to the upside scenario of its March trade forecast, although it stressed that this still depended on a number of assumptions, including accelerated production and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines.

As noted earlier, the slow progress of vaccination in emerging economies, combined with the continuing impact of the pandemic and weak policy support, has made their economic recovery significantly weaker than that of developed economies. The World Bank forecasts that overall output in emerging markets and developing economies will remain 4% below pre-pandemic levels in 2023, with fragile and conflict-affected emerging economies more than 7% below pre-pandemic levels, but advanced economies are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023.

However, in terms of consumption demand and inventory replenishment demand, the recovery of developed economies plays a limited role in driving China's exports.

Consumption of goods has gradually shifted to service consumption, which has limited impact on exports. After the outbreak of COVID-19, the US consumer demand recovered faster than production due to loose policies. The significant increase of transfer payment income and employee compensation in personal income has driven commodity consumption far beyond the historical trend and become an important factor driving the growth of China's commodity export. Consumer service consumption has yet to return to pre-epidemic levels due to the restrictions of epidemic prevention and control and social isolation measures. In 2022, under the baseline scenario, as the epidemic gradually improves and social distancing measures are further relaxed in developed countries, excessive consumption of goods by residents may decrease, while increased service consumption may have a limited driving effect on China's export. However, given that labor shortages remain severe in the U.S., short-term wage increases are expected to continue, slowing the decline in consumer demand for goods.

The replenishment of inventory in the United States has a limited effect on China's export. We use PPI industry data to calculate the actual inventory levels of manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers respectively. Based on the actual inventory data from 2010 to 2019, we use HP filter to extract trend terms and extrapolate and find that the actual inventory water in the three fields is lower than the trend value on average. Even if the real inventory gap were fully closed by the end of 2022, returning to its trend level of $1.9tn, about $280bn of real inventory would need to be added. Using November 2021 as the base, the nominal inventory needs to be increased by about $380 billion. From 2010 to 2019, imports accounted for an average of 11% of total inventories. Without taking into account changes in domestic sales and production, we calculate that restocking could boost US imports by about $42 billion in 2022. Since the us imports from China accounted for 20% of its total imports from 2010 to 2019, it is estimated that the us demand for inventory replenishment only led to an increase of us $8.4 billion in China's exports to the US, and the driving effect on China's export growth is still limited

Global supply chain problems are more likely to improve in the second half

The supplier delivery index in the global MANUFACTURING PMI fell to a record low of 34.8 in October 2021 (a lower delivery index indicates a longer delivery time). In theory, supply chain disruptions and increased demand due to economic recovery should extend delivery times. The ECB's breakdown of PMI supplier lead times globally (excluding the eurozone) suggests that while demand factors have played a major role, supply chain disruptions have accounted for a third of the increase in lead times over the past six months, with an increasing contribution. This is consistent with the trend of global Supply chain Stress index released by the New York Fed during the same period, which rose to 4.37 in October 2021, a record high. Although the two indicators showed signs of improvement in November and December, they still deviated significantly from normal levels, reflecting that supply chain problems are still severe. In addition, it should be pointed out that the delivery time of suppliers in developed economies is much longer than that in emerging economies, showing obvious heterogeneity, which may be related to the significantly faster recovery of demand in developed economies than in emerging economies.

Factors most associated with supply chain disruptions include logistical disruptions, semiconductor shortages and Labour shortages. These factors mainly promote the growth of China's export volume through two channels: one is to highlight the resilience advantage of China's supply chain and increase China's export volume; the other is to push up prices (especially producer prices) and increase the contribution of price factors to export volume. The ECB expects supply chain disruptions to improve gradually in the second half of 2022, but does not rule out the risk of further supply disruptions as the pandemic intensifies 5. In the third quarter of 2021, Duke University CFO survey also showed that most respondents believe supply chain problems are likely to improve in 2022, especially in the second half of the year.

As a result, we believe that global supply chain constraints are likely to continue to support China's exports in the first half of 2022, but as supply chain issues gradually ease in the second half, China's export momentum may weaken.

Challenges faced by foreign trade enterprises

China has been deeply integrated into the global supply chain system, and its position in traditional trade network supply has significantly improved compared to more than a decade ago. China has replaced Japan as the core region of Asia. Therefore, in addition to highlighting the resilience of domestic supply chains and pushing up the contribution of prices to export value, global supply chain problems will also restrict the production and transportation of foreign trade enterprises, especially small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises, and increase the operating pressure of enterprises. The preliminary investigation results of the Ministry of Commerce show that small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises are facing two main difficulties: high shipping costs, some raw material prices are still high, corporate profits are severely squeezed

In addition, since June 2020, both bilateral and multilateral exchange rates of RMB have accumulated a certain increase, which has had a serious impact on export enterprises. The impact of RMB appreciation in the early stage is mainly manifested as financial impact: The average closing price of three and five months 'lag increases by 4.9% and 7.3% respectively in November 2020, that is, the maximum exchange loss of export enterprises is 4.9% or 7.3%, which exceeds the export profit margin of most enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. The impact of the recent RMB appreciation is mainly reflected in the impact on export competitiveness: in the fourth quarter of 2021, the REAL effective exchange rate index of RMB compiled by BIS increased by 3.3% and reached 13.8% at an annual rate, which significantly increased the impact on export competitiveness.

At present, domestic small and medium-sized enterprises export generally exist "single dare not accept" or "increase income does not increase profit" phenomenon. Since May 2021, the Chinese manufacturing PMI index of new export orders continued to below 50, among them, the medium-sized and small enterprises for new export orders index gradually lower, small businesses to mention a new export orders index has been sustained since March 2021 below from the line, only in the past two years in January 2020 and October above 50

3. Forecast of China's export growth rate and share in 2022

The value of China's exports is expected to grow by 10.8%

As mentioned above, under the background of slowing global economic recovery, possible improvement of supply chain problems and greater operating pressure of domestic foreign trade enterprises, it is expected that China's export boom may have come to an end. However, the gradual improvement of global pandemic and supply chain issues should lead to better export growth in the first half of 2022 than in the second half. According to the seasonal pattern of sequential export growth, the year-on-year export growth in the first and second quarters is 16.0% and 16.6% respectively, and the year-on-year export growth in the third and fourth quarters is 6.5% and 6.1% respectively. For the full year, China's exports are expected to grow 10.8%. Further, we use CPI and PPI indicators to fit the export price index, and estimate that the export price will increase by 2% in 2022, and the corresponding export volume will increase by 8.8%.

China's export share is expected to rise to 15.5%

In the first three quarters of 2021, China's export share was 15.0 percent, ACCORDING to WTO data. Given that China's export share averaged 0.2 percentage points lower than its full-year share between 2015 and the first three quarters of 2019, we expect China's full-year export share to be around 15.2% in 2021, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous year. As mentioned in the above analysis, China's export share is likely to rise steadily in 2022. Based on WTO's forecast of 4.7% year-on-year growth in the volume of global trade in 2022, Bloomberg's forecast of 4.2% global CPI growth in 2022, and our forecast of 10.8% growth in The value of China's exports, we can estimate that China's export share will be about 15.5% in 2022, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous year. However, if a bad situation occurs, that is, the global epidemic worsens and supply chain problems do not improve significantly, then China's export dividend period will be further extended and China's export share may be higher.

Foreigners who make money from 'I Love China' help Bilibili find a new 'wealth code'

In China, What's the next "wealth code"?

"Hello everyone, I am a foreigner suffering from cancer. My parents died when I was young. I came across the ocean to China, only to suffer from depression due to language barriers, be harassed by street gangs, beaten to pieces, develop schizophrenia, and have multiple personalities. After being rescued, he suffered online violence because he was gay, and his videos were copied by other writers, so there was no way to complain. In the face of injustice in this world, I still believe that there is love. Finally, I just want to express my heart in one word: 'I love China! '"

The intro is so overwrought and seemingly illogical that many people recognize it as a made-up joke at first sight. But, if you break it down and use it as a video opener. Or in the form of eye-catching headlines, such as "How does a foreigner in China fall in love with this country?" So, its credibility will naturally improve a lot.

At the same time, congratulations, you have preliminarily mastered the "wealth code" of video creation. The next thing you know, your video is likely to be a phenomenal play, and you may even have a loyal fan base chanting "Support you" and "protect you" that will help you on your way to success.

Simply put, the Wealth code can be understood as a template for content creation. It can be a theme or a presentation. But they all have one key characteristic in common -- these "codes" can help authors gain a lot of popularity, attention and even money in a short period of time.

A foreigner on Tiktok took the lead in mastering the art of "password" creation. He, like our example above, relies on an "I love China!" , on the master such as Lin douyin, broke out of their own day.

The Russian brother, who goes by the ID Volaf, has gained more than six million followers on Douyin. Just click on one of his short videos, and the number of likes starts at 200,000. Several videos with high heat easily break a million. Similarly, the number of comments, forwarding is also mostly able to break ten thousand. That's not bad for a platform with a huge user base for short videos.

But after watching a few of his videos, it's not hard to see the problem -- the foreigner, who speaks fluent Chinese and loves hot pot, seems to follow an established formula in all his videos.

For one thing, he would make a spectacle of himself for the camera -- wide-eyed, innocently innocent smile, open-mouthed surprise, and sometimes a thumbs-up.

As the feature begins, the man explodes into his sonorous, penetrating voice and begins to extol all manner of Chinese things, his face still exaggerated, coupled with slightly more grandiose body movements, to convey a sense of shock that he is in heaven.

His lines are often filled with phrases such as "Chinese XX is so great" and "I applaud Chinese products", which even fast local anchors would not use nowadays.

"I love China!" ", a patriotic short video full of magical overtones, and the job is done.

Of course, his "love" for China will take on other forms.

Such as eating a variety of bizarre hotpot dishes to praise Chinese cuisine.

Take your parents to a scenic spot in China and do "China awesome" again for the camera

More than once he even stressed in his video that he wanted to become a "real Chinese" and settle here permanently.

In the comments section of Volaf's video, there were many voices questioning him.

In the comments section of his video, many people questioned whether he was using the "Love China" gimmick as an opportunity to "suck money".

Others have been trolling the comment section with "Fortune Password," mocking the sameness of his videos

Such doubts are not unreasonable, and if we look closely, we can indeed find many contradictions in his previous videos.

For example, he claimed to have owned three generations of Huawei phones, but in the previous video, he was holding an iPhone.

He said he came to Heihe at the age of six, but immediately changed his story to say he had been in China for seven years.

Of course, for Volaf, these doubts are completely trivial. He even went so far as to make a video about all the criticism he received that he didn't sleep well for a week. But the next moment, the painting changes, "because I am real, love China!" ", instantly swept away the previous fatigue, back to the old mood.

If you look at the early videos of Volaf's contributions, they are almost completely different from today's. In his early days, he was a little awkward in front of the camera. Her expression was much more normal than it is now. The content is no different from tiktok's many small-theater productions. At best, he used his status as a foreign student to a lukewarm reception.

He has since tried other video formats, but none has had the same impact as the "Love China" video. "Love China" "wealth code", so that he quickly became popular.

It is not hard to guess that behind this patriotic foreigner, there must be an experienced marketing team who make good use of the particularities of Volaf's identity to create such a "real Chinese".

Of course, not every budding video writer has the same innate advantages as Volaf, and for them to succeed, they need to find other "money codes."

At Bilibili, there has been a craze for creating "Maisao" as a password.

Friends familiar with B station know that B station has such a group of special UP owners. They are suffering from diseases and fighting against them all the time. They will record their lives in the form of videos, so that more audiences suffering from diseases or ordinary people who do not know much about diseases can learn relevant knowledge and regain hope of life through their own stories.

Gradually, you will find that the so-called "anti-wealth password" has become a new "wealth password" itself. It allows more people to find creative inspiration and shortcuts, and so on and so forth, infinite nesting dolls.

It is an inevitable process for video platform users to sink, but in today's Internet era where anyone can become famous by a video, traffic almost represents all the value of a work.

As more and more "wealth code" works appear, the speed of this sinking will be greatly accelerated. In the past, an excellent work needed several days or even months to finish, from conception to production and film. The whole process goes into it.

And who also does not know, tomorrow will have a new "wealth password" appear.

Ubs Wealth: China's stock market recovery will be bright spot for emerging markets in 2022

Us inflation continues to hit a 40-year high. The US Consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.6 percent month-on-month in January and 7.5 percent year on year, the largest year-on-year increase since February 1982, according to the latest data released by the US Labor Department on February 10, 1982. The high inflation figures added to fears that the Federal Reserve would soon embark on aggressive monetary tightening. Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell also revealed recently that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates several times this year to fight inflation, and the earliest rate hike may be in March.

Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer of UBS Wealth Management, said in an exclusive interview with "Global Financial Wire" that the Federal Reserve is expected to start raising interest rates in March and may raise them three times this year, but the market is also considering the possibility of four rate hikes.

Haefele also noted that stubbornly high inflation is probably the biggest risk to the economy and markets, and that tighter monetary policy and the first year of tightening will not be enough to stop the stock market rally or interrupt global growth momentum.

Haefele expects global GDP to grow by 4.7% year-on-year in 2022. He also believes the focus for emerging markets in 2022 will be the recovery of Chinese stocks.

Most of the world's central banks will tighten monetary policy in 2022. How will relatively tight monetary policy affect markets?

Mark Haefele: The effect of tighter monetary policy is that it removes some of the stimulus. When it comes to market impact, the first thing to do is look at history. When central banks start to tighten monetary policy, equities can still do well, judging by the s&p 500. Because policymakers' logic is that growth is strong, they can tighten monetary policy. Historically, in the first six months after policy makers start tightening, the S&P 500 has typically risen about 5% in the following five months.

But the pace at which inflation falls this year will determine when policymakers exit tightening or have to raise rates. The current base case is that tighter monetary policy and the first year of tightening will not be enough to stop the stock market rally or interrupt the momentum of national or global growth.

When do you think the Fed will start raising rates? How many rate hikes will there be this year?

Mark Haefele: We think the Fed will probably start raising rates in March, maybe three times this year, which is what the market is expecting. I think if our argument that inflation is starting to slow is confirmed, it could be positive for equities, which are geared up for higher interest rates.

The People's Bank of China has already started cutting reserve requirements. How would you comment on that?

Mark Haefele: We are very excited to see this move. Many people are envious of the way China manages its economy, dealing with different issues very pragmatically. For example, COVID-19 and other uncontrollable factors. At the same time, I think China has responded positively to the corporate debt problem and tried to steer the economy in a better direction. In the first half of this year, we expect western developed equity markets to do better, because that's where the growth is. But that leadership is likely to shift gradually and, later this year, more towards the Chinese market.

How will the current divergence in US and Chinese monetary policy affect global equity markets?

Mark Haefele: To use a common expression, for example, someone with their hand in an ice bucket will experience a different temperature than someone with their hand in a fire. I think this is not a bad thing if these policies are introduced based on the right judgment. In the West, where growth had reached strong highs, stimulus measures began to wane. And if China adds stimulus, it could indeed help Asia recover more quickly than expected, given moderate headline inflation throughout the year. So I think it's important to look at the total amount of global stimulus, to think about the world economy from China, the US and Europe, to look at what's happening with inflation, what's happening with COVID-19.

You can see that this balancing act has worked well so far, except for this spike in inflation. How this balance continues to move forward will be one of the priorities of this year's economic work.

Inflation may gradually normalize

What key words would you use to describe the economy in 2021? Why is that?

Mark Haefele: Last year was a year when the economy was resilient enough and the market was unbalanced. The global coronavirus pandemic, and the measures governments have taken to respond to it, have made economies more resilient. At the same time, government intervention leads to uneven economic performance -- for example, as the government shifts its focus to different areas, such as technology or health care.

Inflation will rise sharply in 2021. What will happen if inflation stays high for a long time?

Mark Haefele: Stubbornly high inflation is probably the biggest risk to the economy and markets. At present, I think the main concern in the market is that high inflation will not be brought under control even with the expected policy adjustment. Restarting the economy will require a stronger response from policymakers.

Typically, the economy recovers, central banks start raising rates and then fall into recession. That's something we have to worry about. If inflation remains high, that is what has happened many times in the past.

You mentioned that this year will be divided into two phases. Can you elaborate on that?

Mark Haefele: If you think about trends in growth and inflation, we expect the economy to grow well above normal in the first half of 2022 as excess household savings are consumed when the economy restarts and businesses replenish inventories for reopening; Inflation will also remain high for most of the first half.

But going into the second half, we expect some of the excess household savings and economic stimulus measures to continue to kick in and normalize growth. As people spend less on shopping, inflation will start to fall. Excessive consumption will lead to shortages of materials and goods. As the epidemic abates, people will shift their spending to services such as restaurants and travel, which could normalize inflation in the overall economy.

What about supply chain issues?

Mark Haefele: I think it's part of the conversation about normalizing inflation. If you look at the last two years, we are stuck at the port.

That creates supply chain problems, which are the real cause of inflation. So as we ease supply chain problems we also ease inflation. We may not go back to the highly globalised stage of a few years ago, where many companies are trying to localise their supply chains. It will increase expenses, it will increase capital expenditure, but it will also increase economic growth. When these things reach a new equilibrium, they may also fuel inflation.

You expect global GDP to grow by 4.7% yoy in 2022. What factors will drive GDP growth?

Mark Haefele: As I mentioned, there will be halves this year. The focus of consumption is now on buying goods, and we expect it to shift to buying services. As the blockade is lifted, buying services could be a strong driver of growth in the second half of the year.

While stimulus is being tightened, the pace of fiscal and monetary tightening is likely to be relatively moderate if inflation starts to fall. That gives the economy plenty of time to keep growing.

What are the downside risks to the economy this year?

Mark Haefele: There's always a risk. Inflation leads to an unfamiliar situation that leaves policymakers open to error. And with bond yields already at historic lows, it is easy to make mistakes. Government bonds are now trading at negative, near-zero and zero interest rates across much of the world. This means that the role of bonds in portfolios, or the ability of policymakers to use them to set interest rate policy, is clearly different than in the past.

Policy mistakes may therefore be the biggest risk. Other factors, of course, include a renewed rise in new infections due to the Novel coronavirus variant. Finally, we also need to watch the geopolitical situation.

China's stock market recovery will be the bright spot for emerging markets in 2022

What is your forecast of 10% global earnings growth in 2021 based on?

Mark Haefele: In 2021 we see a massive increase in GDP driving higher earnings. But as you know, we can still feel the strong level of global earnings growth from 4.7% GDP growth. What needs to be noted is the situation of COVID-19. Now, the overall number of coronavirus infections, including the daily number of new confirmed cases, has begun to decline, even in the United States and parts of Europe. This allowed some of them to reopen; Companies whose earnings were severely reduced due to the impact of the epidemic began to recover and their earnings improved.

Which industries do you think will have more opportunities?

Mark Haefele: At the beginning of the year, we're focusing on deals that are reopening. That brings attention to countries such as Europe and Japan. As I've said before, focus on cyclical stocks, financials and energy. At the same time, we are also starting to see healthcare as a more defensive sector as we are likely to be more deeply affected by policy tightening. With more elective surgery and the possibility of a resurgence, the health care industry is defensive both on the part of big Pharma and on the part of surgery. In addition, the healthcare industry has some growth potential because it includes elements of biotechnology. Healthcare is cheaper in the overall deal than technology.

How do you forecast The Chinese stock market in 2022?

Mark Haefele: We think last year was a tough year for the market. I am trying to understand the reform and policy steps that China is implementing, when will the policy end? We are now closely watching these stimulus and easing measures in China, which will help the Chinese market to take the lead, especially in the second half. I am optimistic that China's economy will do better this year.

What about emerging markets?

Mark Haefele: Our emerging market focus will shift to Asia later this year as the Asian economy is led by China. I think now is the time, in terms of commodity countries and commodity emerging markets, to look for places that can profit from strong commodity movements. But first, the story of emerging markets in 2022 will be about the recovery of Chinese equities.

What advice do you have for investors?

Mark Haefele: The most important thing is to look at the overall portfolio and how you allocate your money. We need to think about how much capital we need over the next few years, and liquidity issues. What parts of your portfolio can you hold for the long term? What is money that I don't need right away and can use for long-term investment growth? For those of you who are very lucky [in the investment markets], think about what you need to leave behind. What money you won't need in your lifetime that can be invested for the truly long term; And what assets can be left to the public, public, charitable and related organizations.

Strategically, I think it's going to be an interesting year. You know, we can't get too attached to the headlines we're talking about. In the US, at least, people are using social media to "binge" and get caught up in the headlines. So focusing on the headlines of the day is not a good strategy. Paying more attention to things like the interconnectedness of growth and policy, and judging what is likely to happen in markets from that, rather than just relying on sensational headlines, can make you a better forecaster.

So people need to focus on the longer term. That's what we're trying to help people manage their investment markets and their finances.

China's new energy vehicles accounted for 53% of the global market share, while BYD and Wuling were beaten by Tesla

In 2021, global sales of new energy vehicles are surging.

In 2021, the global sales volume of narrow new energy passenger vehicles reached 6.23 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 118% and a market penetration rate of 7%, according to the Passenger Association. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Chinese and European markets has reached 13%, and in the fourth quarter, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Chinese market has exceeded 20%. The annual market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Norway reached 70%, and 22% in Germany.

China's new-energy passenger vehicle sales have reached 53% of the global market share, and its share of the global pure electric vehicle market is as high as 61%. The competitive advantages of Chinese auto companies in global new energy vehicles and intelligent Internet connectivity are becoming increasingly prominent.

Thanks in large part to the Chinese market and the Shanghai Gigafactory, Tesla won the top spot for new energy vehicle sales in 2021, according to ev-Volumes. In 2021, Tesla sold 936,200 electric vehicles worldwide, more than 51 percent of which came from tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory. Tesla recently reported 34 mentions of the "Shanghai Gigafactory," nearly twice as many as the Fremont Gigafactory in California.

Byd ranked second among global automakers with sales of 593,800 neVs, up 231.6 percent year on year. Citic Securities Research forecast that BYD's new electric passenger car sales in 2022 will be 1.27 million units, plus the existing orders of 200,000 units, the annual delivery is expected to reach 1.5 million units. Some industry insiders believe that if BYD continues to maintain the current strong performance, BYD is expected to beat Tesla in 2022 and regain the world's new energy vehicle sales champion after 2019.

Wuling, helped by the strong performance of Hongguang MINIEV, ranked third globally with 456,100 new energy vehicles sold, while SAIC ranked seventh. The reporter found that in the top 20 new energy vehicle sales of car companies, Chinese car companies have occupied eight seats, Great Wall, GAC, Changan, Chery, Xiaopeng automobile and other domestic car companies have entered the list. Among them, Xiaopeng automobile ranks the 19th in the world with annual sales of 96,900 units.

In 2022, nio, Ideo and Xiaopeng will launch new models. According to Citic Securities Research Report, the sales volume of NiO, Ideo and Xiaopeng is expected to reach 162,000, 147,000 and 200,000 respectively in 2022. Further sales are expected to help "Wei Xiaoli" all enter the top 20 list of global sales of new energy vehicles in 2022.

In the top 20 model sales, a total of 11 Chinese new energy vehicle products shortlisted. Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y rank first and third in the world respectively, with annual sales of Model 3 reaching 500,000. Industry insiders believe the Model Y has more potential in the future. Wuling Hongguang MINIEV sold 424,100 units in 2021, ranking second only to the Model 3. This is the second time that Wuling Hongguang MINIEV has ranked second in global sales of new energy models, and the gap with Model 3 has narrowed to less than 80,000 units from 240,000 units in 2020. In addition to Hongguang MINIEV, micro-electric vehicles have become a force not to be underestimated in the sales list, changan Benben E-star, Chery Little Ant, Roewei Keliwei and other micro-electric vehicles have entered the top 20 sales list.

Byd Qin PLUS DM-I ranked fifth behind Volkswagen ID.4 by about 10,000 units. But the sales figures only include plug-in hybrid Qin models. If pure electric models are included, Qin's cumulative sales in 2021 will reach 160,000 units, surpassing ID.4 and ranking fourth. Among the top 20 global sales of new energy vehicle models, BYD has three models including Qin PLUS DM-I, Han EV and Song Pro/PLUS, all of which entered the top 10.

The ideal ONE model, a new force of domestic car manufacturing, was sold 90,500 units in 2021, ranking sixth in the global sales of new energy models. Xiaopeng P7's annual sales reached 60,600 units, ranking 19th. Compared with Xiaopeng automobile and Ideal Automobile, although the total sales volume of NIO automobile also exceeds 90,000, it lacks popular single products. In March and September 2022, NIO will deliver its sedan products ET7 and ET5, among which THE ET5 model performs very well in the opening of reservations, causing niO APP to break down once. Some industry insiders believe that the car could become a strong rival to the Model 3 and help NiO secure a place in the global top 20 neV sales list in 2022.

Comparison of used car evaluation system between China and foreign countries

With the development of China's automobile industry, the second-hand car market has become an important part of the automobile market. In recent years, China's second-hand car market increases at an annual rate of 20%-30%. However, compared with the mature second-hand car market abroad, China's second-hand car market is still in its primary stage. Based on the comparison of second-hand car evaluation systems in China and abroad, this paper discusses the construction of second-hand car evaluation system in China according to the actual situation of China's second-hand car market.

I. Overview of foreign second-hand car evaluation system

In the developed countries of automobile industry, the second-hand car market has become a very mature market, and the second-hand car transaction volume occupies a considerable proportion in the automobile transaction. In the US, for example, the volume of used cars traded in 2004 was 2.5 times that of new cars.

1. Japan's used car evaluation system

In 1966, Japan established the Japan Evaluation Association, which played an important role in standardizing the evaluation behavior of second-hand cars. According to the regulation of Japan evaluation association, in order to get a used car appraisal qualifications, must be used car dealerships, to evaluate association for implementing appraisal business, after evaluating association to evaluate, to evaluate business confirmation, and hang up in store "implementation appraisal business shop" sign. The sales shop should have professional appraisers who have passed the skills examination organized by the appraisal Association. The appraisers are divided into large appraisers and small appraisers. Appraisers are qualified for three years and can be promoted through further education.

The formula for calculating the price of used cars in Japan is as follows: Evaluation price: basic evaluation and valuation - standard maintenance cost and standard miscellaneous cost - adjustment point of each company - plus or minus point. Among them: the basic appraisal is based on the guidance manual issued by the appraisal association, through the second-hand car market information system calculated.

The Japan Appraisal Association publishes a monthly price Guide, commonly known as the Silver Book, in which retail prices are published by region (the country is divided into three regions). In addition, a Yellow Book with retail and wholesale prices is published in the Yokohama area of Tokyo.

In Japan, owners of old cars are required to be truthfully informed of their restoration history. "In addition to registration of the brand name and purpose, a special record of the vehicle's mileage is also required." Detailed records are made of the repair history of the vehicle side beam and the hidden dangers that do not meet the safety standards and need to be repaired, and the Vehicle Condition Evaluation Book is attached. At the same time, each used car can enjoy one year or 25,000 kilometers of after-sales maintenance service in the country; Buyers who are not satisfied can return the car within 10 days or 500 kilometers of its sale.

2. The used car evaluation system in the United States

The number one reason used cars are so popular in the U.S. is that used-car programs typically include qualifying quality requirements, stringent testing standards, quality-improvement guarantees, transfer guarantees, and delivery schemes that match new-car sales. Even certification by some big car companies offers the same benefits as a new car. Rate of car loans.

Generally, the pricing method for second-hand cars in the United States is to compile a General Price Catalog for the owned brand cars, which includes the date of production, brand, model, mileage, etc. The clerk at the store can give a more reasonable price by looking through the catalogue. In addition, there are many factors affecting the price of a car, such as whether there has been an accident, whether there is a record of overhaul and whether there are scratches on the body, etc., these factors will make the price of the car up and down. In order to avoid inaccurate information in the second-hand car market, there is a certain trial period for buying second-hand cars to avoid consumers being deceived. Gm, for example, requires a national warranty of one to two years for used cars under seven years old, the same as for new cars. In addition, all used cars sold at dealerships must have a technical certificate issued by the government before they can be used on the road. These practices are an important reason for the prosperity of the used-car market in the United States.

3. Mexico's used car evaluation system

The used car market in Mexico is strictly supervised and regulated by the relevant authorities. In addition to the laws and regulations governing the operation of ordinary goods, it must also comply with the regulations governing specific industries. The most binding of these regulations is a special regulation on the protection of consumer interests that used car owners must abide by. According to the regulations, used car operators must provide consumers with details of the mechanical properties and legal driving performance of the vehicles they sell, and sign formal sales contracts with consumers to prevent fraud and misleading behavior in the sales process. According to the regulation, owners of used cars must carry out strict mechanical testing and maintenance of more than 250 key parts of the vehicles they buy, and the vehicles they sell must have good internal appearance, be safe and reliable, and the vehicle certificates must be completed. When signing a contract, it is necessary to indicate the specific condition and legality of the used car, including model, body color, license plate, car number, engine number, mileage, mechanical performance, car tax and car license, etc. The contract also has the expiration period, warranty conditions, penalties for breach of contract and other items, and put on record in the vehicle management department. Mexico has specialized in the purchase of used cars, maintenance and sales of business places, trading and operating legal norms, the sale of safe and reliable vehicles, genuine price.

4. Swiss used car evaluation system

Switzerland's second-hand car evaluation system is called The Unotes evaluation system, which is formulated by the Association of second-hand cars. The evaluation of any second-hand car is determined by this set of scientific evaluation system. The sales price of the second-hand car is determined by the technical personnel of the technical testing department, and the test list is drawn up. Then the appraisal of the car is made. The seller finally determines the actual sales price of the second-hand car according to the appraisal of the second-hand car and the original sales price. Used car owners can get a two-year warranty. This commitment is held not only in Switzerland, but throughout Europe. If the owner resells within 2 years, the warranty period can also be transferred to another owner with the replacement of the owner. This not only removes the car owners' worries about buying second-hand cars, but also promotes the sales of second-hand cars to some extent.

II, problems existing in China's second-hand car market

First of all, due to the serious information asymmetry in China's second-hand car market, the value evaluation of second-hand cars is more random, which is the main reason that restricts the development of China's second-hand car market. In second-hand car trading, consumers are the vulnerable group of information and cannot obtain the vehicle's technical status, price, driving distance, repair experience and other information comprehensively. In order to gain profits, sellers often hide the defects of second-hand cars. At present, many second-hand car markets in China do not have the ability and facilities to evaluate and price, and second-hand car sellers are often unable to provide the maintenance history and detailed vehicle condition inspection report of the car, and consumers will face the risks of quality, price fraud and illegal vehicle purchase when buying second-hand cars. In the process of trading, the phenomenon of "private sale of public, high valuation, public sale of private, low valuation" occurs from time to time, which not only disrupts the market order, causes the loss of state-owned assets and tax revenue, affects the normal development of judicial justice and related businesses, but also makes the legitimate rights and interests of consumers can not be protected, and inhibits effective demand. It also makes it possible for smuggled cars, assembled cars and scrapped cars to re-enter the society, creating conditions for "black box operation."

In addition, there are no evaluation standards and norms for second-hand car appraisal and evaluation in China. In the appraisal and evaluation process, detection equipment is rarely used, mainly relying on the visual inspection of appraisers, which is very arbitrary. Most second-hand car trading markets take the appraisal price as the basis of charging transaction fees. The appraisal price often differs greatly from the actual transaction price, so it is difficult to guarantee the fairness of the appraisal result.

Iii. Suggestions on the establishment of second-hand car evaluation system in China

The establishment of second-hand car evaluation system in China is of great significance to the development of second-hand car market. According to statistics, China conducted appraisals and appraisals on 6 million motor vehicles in 2004, with a total value of more than 25 billion yuan. The appraisal and appraisal of second-hand cars increase by 25% every year. Therefore, the appraisal and appraisal process of second-hand cars is not only a process of resetting the original value and forming the realistic value, but also implies many profound meanings. First of all, second-hand cars enter the market for re-circulation, according to the relevant provisions of the state should pay certain taxes and fees. Therefore, the accuracy of second-hand car evaluation is directly related to national tax revenue and fiscal revenue. Second, more than 50% of the vehicles in China are owned by the state and collectives, so the evaluation of second-hand cars is to a large extent the evaluation of state-owned assets, and the evaluation results are directly related to the loss of state-owned assets. Third, China has strict regulations on second-hand cars entering the market for re-circulation, and the appraisal and evaluation process is an important means to prevent illegal transactions.

1. Strengthen the training and re-education of used car appraisers

The evaluation process of second-hand car is a very complicated process with many influencing factors. Therefore, higher requirements are put forward for second-hand car appraisers. First of all, the scope of knowledge should be wide. The theories and methods of automobile appraisal and evaluation are based on asset appraisal, involving economic management, marketing, finance, price, accounting, mechanical principle, automobile construction and other knowledge. Secondly, strong policy, not only to be familiar with the Auction Law, State-owned Assets Evaluation management Measures, Automobile scrap standards, Second-hand Car Trading management measures and other policies and regulations, but also to master the relevant provisions of vehicle management and relevant supporting measures. Again, the practice and skill levels, demands from personnel of course of study will not only drive a motor vehicle, but also to be able to use testing instrument and equipment, and can through the visual, listening to the sounds and touch means to determine basic situation of the second-hand car appearance, assembly through road test to judge the engine and transmission system, steering system and brake system, the performance of the circuit, oil, Even the function and replacement of the main parts of the motor vehicle should also have a certain understanding. Finally, it is necessary to grasp the market dynamics. At present, the automobile products are updated quickly, the structure is upgraded, and the technological innovation is emerging in endlessly. In addition, the market situation is changeable and unpredictable under the condition of market economy, so that the second-hand car appraisal and evaluation work has a strong dynamic and timeliness. It requires practitioners not only to master the relevant original book value, net value and historical basis of procedures, but also to make accurate evaluation results based on the actual price and quotation of the base date of evaluation.

To standardize the appraisal and evaluation behavior of second-hand car market, it is necessary to train a large number of qualified second-hand car appraisers. By June 2004, there were more than 8,000 appraisal and evaluation appraisers nationwide, including more than 500 senior appraisers, which is seriously insufficient for China's huge second-hand car market. In addition, the second-hand car market is developing very rapidly, and the evaluation methods and evaluation standards are constantly updated. It is necessary to establish a retraining system for second-hand car appraisers, cancel the lifetime professional qualification system, so that second-hand car appraisers continue to receive re-education to adapt to the development of the market.

2. Establish an independent third-party appraisal and evaluation agency

In order to safeguard the interests of both sides of second-hand car trade, it is necessary to make second-hand car appraisal and evaluation more open and transparent. Relevant state departments have carried out the pilot work of separating the second-hand car appraisal and evaluation from the second-hand car trading market in 15 provinces and cities, including Hubei and Tianjin, and achieved good results. However, due to historical reasons, relevant units in some regions are still reluctant to withdraw from the appraisal and evaluation of second-hand cars. Although some newly established institutions are independent of trading in form, they still have close relations in fact. Therefore, it is of great significance to establish a truly independent third-party appraisal and evaluation agency for the fairness, fairness and transparency of second-hand car appraisal and evaluation.

3. Establish unified appraisal and evaluation standards for second-hand cars

Human factors play a leading role in the appraisal and evaluation of second-hand cars in China. The second-hand car appraisal and evaluation industry is not unified, standardized and scientific. Many used car markets still use the simple average life depreciation method to evaluate value. Therefore, it is particularly important to establish a set of evaluation standards and methods that are really suitable for China's second-hand car market. This requires scientific research institutions, regulatory authorities and production enterprises to jointly formulate evaluation standards and fundamentally regulate the second-hand car appraisal and evaluation business in China.

4. Establish a corresponding supervision mechanism

Establish a standard system of used car appraisal and evaluation, including legal norms and standards, to guide the industry to develop toward legalization, rationalization and effectiveness; In the appropriate time to establish a top-down second-hand car appraisal and evaluation association, the implementation of industry self-discipline management.

5. Establish second-hand car appraisal and evaluation information system

For a long time, the identification and evaluation of second-hand cars in China are basically handled by hand, and appraisers have to spend a lot of time collecting, sorting, analyzing and storing all kinds of information. Applying computer technology and information technology to the appraisal work, establish a used car appraisal information system, can deal with the information easily and quickly, reduce the labor intensity of appraisal personnel, improve the work efficiency, the focus shifted to the analysis of the information, judgment, decision-making, and other creative work.

In addition, the second-hand car appraisal and valuation information system is established on the basis of analyzing the manual appraisal and valuation work and repeatedly exploring the rules of information processing in appraisal and valuation, which reflects the practical experience of appraisal and valuation work and has a certain scientific nature. Used car appraisal information system, can be used to overcome the current used in the evaluation to a great extent, dependent on personal level and experience of a evaluation, reduce manual is easy to occur during the process of processing information, and use different evaluation methods validation evaluation results with each other, so as to improve the accuracy of evaluation results.

Through the comparison of second-hand car evaluation system at home and abroad, we can clearly understand the development direction of second-hand car evaluation system, and establish a real second-hand car evaluation system in line with China's national conditions. It is of great significance to active second-hand car market, promote the healthy growth of second-hand car market and the rapid development of the automobile industry.

Profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size will grow by 34.3% in 2021, with an average growth of 18.2% over the past two years

In 2021, China, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 8.70921 trillion yuan, an increase of 34.3 percent over the previous year (calculated on a comparable basis, see Note II for details), an increase of 39.8 percent over 2019 and an average increase of 18.2 percent over the past two years.

In 2021, among industrial enterprises above designated size, the total profits of state-owned holding enterprises reached 2.27697 trillion yuan, up 56.0% over the previous year. Profits of joint-stock enterprises totaled 6.27022 trillion yuan, up 40.2%; Total profits of enterprises invested by foreign investors and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan enterprises reached 2.284.55 trillion yuan, up 21.1%; Profits of private enterprises totaled 2,915.04 billion yuan, up 27.6 percent.

In 2021, the mining industry made a total profit of 1.03908 billion yuan, 1.91 times more than the previous year. The total profit of the manufacturing industry reached 7.36122 trillion yuan, up 31.6%; Profits from electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply totaled 308.92 billion yuan, down 41.9 percent.

In 2021, among 41 industrial sectors, 32 saw their total profits increase, eight saw their profits decline and one saw their profits turn from surplus to deficit. Profits of main industries are as follows: The total profits of oil and natural gas exploitation increased by 5.85 times, oil, coal and other fuel processing by 2.24 times, coal mining and washing by 2.13 times, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing by 1.16 times, and chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing by 87.8 percent. Ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing grew by 75.5%; computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing by 38.9%; non-metallic mineral products by 14.3%; electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing by 12.2%; special equipment manufacturing by 10.2%; general equipment manufacturing by 8.3%; textiles by 4.1%; Automobile manufacturing grew 1.9 percent, agricultural and sideline food processing fell 9.2 percent, and electricity and heat production and supply fell 57.1 percent.

In 2021, operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 127.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.4 percent over the previous year. Operating cost of 107.12 trillion yuan, up 19.1%; Profit margin on operating income was 6.81%, 0.76 percentage points higher than the previous year.

By the end of 2021, the assets of industrial enterprises above designated size totaled 141.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.9 percent over the previous year. Liabilities totaled 79.23 trillion yuan, up 9.6%; Owners' equity totaled 62.06 trillion yuan, up 10.2%; The asset-liability ratio was 56.1 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous year.

By the end of 2021, the receivables of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 18.87 trillion yuan, up 13.3 percent over the previous year. Finished goods inventory was 5.40 trillion yuan, up 17.1%.

In 2021, the cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size will be 83.74 yuan, 0.23 yuan less than the previous year. Expenses per 100 yuan of operating revenue were 8.59 yuan, 0.59 yuan less than the previous year.

By the end of 2021, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size per 100 yuan of assets was 95.4 yuan, an increase of 7.7 yuan over the previous year. Per capita operating income was 1.720 million yuan, an increase of 284,000 yuan over the previous year. The turnover days of finished goods inventory were 16.8 days, 0.9 days less than last year. The average payback period for receivables was 49.5 days, 2.0 days less than the previous year.

In December 2021, industrial enterprises above designated size earned a total profit of 734.20 billion yuan, up 4.2 percent year on year.